Global real tennis handicaps to be cut by 2.5 points
Doubles handicaps to be cut by 0.7 points
Every active player real tennis player in the world will receive a cut to their handicap at the beginning of August, following a new procedure approved by the International Tennis Committee (ITC).
Whenever new players enter the game, they are often rapid improvers for several years as they learn the game, its rules and its intricacies. Because handicap movements are a zero-sum-game, as the new players improve their handicap they must win handicap points from the long-term established — and otherwise stable — players in the game.
As a result, established players are seeing their handicaps increase over time even if they maintain the same standard of play. The so-called handicap inflation filters through all levels of the game, as evidenced by the fact that the spread between the strongest and weakest handicaps has been constant over the last 20 years. The median handicap has increased over 17 points since the introduction of online handicaps in late 2001. Demographic changes are only a minor component of the observed inflation.
If left unabated, continued handicap inflation means that less players meet the qualifying standards for numerous tournaments and leagues, from the British Open through to the Category H 80+ Championships. Rather than rely on tournament organisers to regularly raise their qualification standards, the International Handicap Sub-Committee (IHSC) will make an annual adjustment to handicaps to regulate the ongoing inflation.
Each year, on 30 June, the chair of the IHSC will determine the handicap of the median active player in the world. Their handicap will be shifted to equal 55.0, with all other active handicaps shifted by an equal amount. The differences between players are therefore kept constant, meaning that handicap matches and tournaments will be unaffected. The level was chosen to reflect the state of handicaps at the resumption of play after the COVID-19 pandemic. The date was chosen in the northern hemisphere off-season to cause as little disruption to tournament play globally as possible — for example National League and Brodie Cup team selection in the UK.
In 2025, singles handicaps will be reduced by 2.5 points. Doubles handicaps will be reduced by 0.7 points. Many players may find a further rubber-band adjustment being applied to their doubles handicaps after this reduction. The reduction will be applied on 1 August.
Any player who has recorded a result on RealTennisOnline in the 12 months preceding 1 August will be subject to the handicap reduction. Players on provisional handicaps will keep their existing number of provisional matches. There will not be differing reductions for different clubs, countries nor handicap levels. Category 1 players will also be subject to the reductions.
Clubs and tournament organisers are requested not to change the entry qualifications to their competitions to account for the reduction in handicap. Club professionals should ensure that all results have been entered by the 5 PM in their local time zone on 31 July, as matches played in July but entered in August will not result in a handicap adjustment.
Prospective National League or Brodie Cup captains should be aware of this pending reduction when assembling their teams for the 2025/26 seasons.
The introduction of an annual readjustment is part of a broader body of work being undertaken by the ITC in relation to RTO and handicaps. Currently, the IHSC is undertaking a full review of the methodology of the handicap system — the first such review in over twenty years and will ensure the system continues to serve the game well into the future. Players can also expect a refreshed RTO, currently in the testing phase, enabling a more streamlined experience for tracking their progress and managing their court bookings.
Any questions or queries should be directed to ben.geytenbeek@gmail.com.
There is, of course, another possible explanation for the handicap drift. The handicap system has ongoing fundamental flaws (please read: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1AaiydYTUC).
These will have consequences that should be unsurprising to anyone who understands the problem. Just to recap, the main flaws in the system are miscalculating the probabilities of winning & losing matches incorrectly, and then assigning the wrong outcomes & handicap movements to these results.Â
The top players play most, if not all, of their matches off level, and, as these matches are deemed to be "more important", the assigned handicap movements are larger. This will have a predictable effect: handicap drift. Why? The explanation is simple:
When two players meet, one expects the genuinely better player to win more of their matches when they play off level. However, as the current system rewards Wins (and, even worse, Big Wins) with large handicap changes, this means that their handicaps move more than they should. There will therefore be a tendency for the very best players to drift away from the other top ten/twenty players. Also, these other players will now have worse handicaps than they should do, and when they play someone lower down the handicaps, and genuinely not as good as them, they Win, or even more likely, given they now have a faulty handicap, gain a Big Win. This roughly corrects their own handicap, but now the next lesser player down the chain has a wrong handicap. They now play someone worse than themselves and the process repeats.
What happens is that over time, on average, these handicap points are passed down the handicap system to lesser players.
Obviously, the better tranche of players will be passing on these handicap points, so they will not experience quite the same extreme handicap drift as the lesser players. This is precisely what we see in the data: the biggest drifts have occurred for the worst quantiles, while the best quantile has seen the least drift.
It is an inherent process that will continue while the current system is in place.
The idea to reduce all handicaps is an excellent one, with which I heartily agree. But it is only a sticking plaster that does not address the underlying problem that causes the issue.
This is very interesting. I am curious how this compares with other activities with handicapping systems: golf, chess, and go.