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Julian D Sunter's avatar

Great discussion!

My thoughts:

A small difference in ability between the two opponents is all it takes to create a large winning margin, according to mathematical analysis:

E.g. a player who has a probability of 52% to win each point would win almost 75% of tennis matches.

I like the idea of using standard deviations from the mean to decide what is statistically significant:

Within 1 standard deviation is usual. No change.

In a coin toss distribution, 1 std dev from the mean is about 68% probable (I’d call a result outside of that range unusual) HC Win

2 std dev from mean is 95%~ (so outside of that is what I would call unlikely.) HC Big Win

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